Have you ever encountered people who, after a very unexpected event (such as the unexpected increase in the global gold’s population after the martyrdom of General Soleimani), start all kinds of analyzes and that it was completely predictable ?! Or, for example, about bitcoin!
Instagram is full of people who say the following about Bitcoin:
“Did you know that if you bought Bitcoin worth one million of your revenue in 2005, you would be a billionaire by all means now?”
Or those who blame the stock market activists that we said the stock market is falling hard! And then they refer you to books like Dominguez Salvatore’s “Microeconomics” and somehow show off this subject and their intelligence that sometimes the listeners feel stupid! How about a jump in the dollar from 1,200 tomans to about 4,000 tomans and then 14,000 tomans ?! You might say now it was predictable. Wait a minute. # اندکی_تامل.
Personally, I have encountered Croatian showmen (the term used by #Sadra_Ali_Abadi) over and over again after unexpected events. how about you?!
These are called strong blacks! What is a strong black story?
An unexpected event with a huge consequence that can be explained and predicted after the event. Simply put, strong black has three characteristics: 1. It is almost unpredictable, so we consider it very unlikely to happen. 2. The consequences are huge 3. After the event, people claim that such an event was predictable!
And why strong black? Before the discovery of Australia, everyone thought that swans were white, until in Australia, swans were discovered that were not only not white, but vice versa, black! Seeing white swans millions of times does not mean that black swans do not exist.
Black swans are a symbol of “shocking events.” They are astonishing because no one predicted it and was not ready for it. Why? Because we humans want to predict the future by looking at past experience (history). And obviously, mobile phones were not invented in the past. There was no ISIS. Hitler was not born. The Soviet Union had not collapsed and the Kermanshah earthquake and the Golestan flood had not occurred.
“Nasim Talib” divides people into two groups in relation to black swans: fortune tellers who try to see the world in the form of a middle ground (Nasim Talib is a word builder) with mathematical models and Gaussian diagrams, but it is not, and therefore their predictions Goes wrong. And those who want to extract theory and hypothesis by trying to establish a cause-and-effect relationship after the strong black occurred. In a way, Talib mocks everything that happens in universities. He says the university simulates the environment and that simulation creates bias. Like a bodybuilder who works out at the gym but can’t lift a single stone in the real world. He condemns economists who use their models to create blindness to the real world, where black swans sleep.
Note that black swans are not always negative, but can have positive effects: mobile, artificial intelligence, currency codes, and the voting of immigrants and minorities in elections in developed countries; All black swans are positive. (Taken from the article #Mojtaba_Lashkar_Bloki)
The first is to accept that the probability of astonishing events (the discovery of black swans) cannot be calculated using scientific methods. Unfortunately, experts in this field have as much power of prediction and prediction as the common people. Our defaults make us blind to seeing black swans.
The second task is to consider the black swans (unlikely futures) in addition to the definite parameters (definite future) and possible scenarios (probable futures). How? Think about the unlikely future. Among the unlikely futures, identify those that have the most fundamental impact on us, and then ask ourselves what the effects are, and then how can we not be harmed by its negative effects or use its positive effects? For example, we think that no bank in Iran has gone bankrupt so far, and if it goes bankrupt, the central bank will compensate. Why? Because such a thing has not happened in the past. But maybe once we realized that there is a damn strong black and exactly the bank where 100% of our deposit is, went bankrupt and….
We may not be able to stop floods, earthquakes, wars, inflation of a thousand percent. But we can be exposed to an event or not, or we can take compensatory measures to cover them or not. A person who has a house on a fault is much more vulnerable to earthquakes. We can not stop the earthquake, we can not even say when the earthquake will come? But we can not live in the danger zone. Also have the necessary mental, mental, physical and nutritional preparation for the earthquake.
We can not prevent the bankruptcy of our bank, but….
We can not prevent the spread of artificial intelligence, but…
We can not prevent the emergence of cryptocurrencies, but…
Historical experience has shown that Iran is a land of black swans, black swans have both positive and negative effects. We cannot catch or tame black swans, but we can take action to prepare ourselves for the next black swan.
For strategic prescriptions, I encourage you to read the powerful Black Book. # Best_books_who_read
Impressions from reading books and critiques in cyberspace, including: Article #Mojtaba_Lashkar_Bloki and #Sadra_Ali_Abadi